AFC Eskilstuna 1–2 Osters IF: Result & Stats

AFC Eskilstuna

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Osters IF

T. Varmanen 61' (OG)

J. Westermark 20'

M. Berg 1'

10/16/2022

Superettan · Round 27Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna44%

×Draw26%

Osters IF30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchOsters IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.16

AFC Eskilstuna

1.48

Osters IF

1.16

AFC Eskilstuna creates 28% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 112 away

1.60

creates per match

1.35

0.96

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna

1.60

Osters IF

1.35

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna

0.96

Osters IF

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Osters IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw

70%

AFC Eskilstuna or Osters IF

74%

Draw or Osters IF

56%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

22%

Osters IF wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

77%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

43%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

19%

Osters IF 1+ goals

69%

Osters IF 2+ goals

32%

Osters IF 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

60%

Osters IF (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.96 · 77 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.36 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.60 + Osters IF defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.48

Osters IF attack 1.35 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

44%

level

26%

Osters IF scores more

30%

AFC Eskilstuna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

20'

30'

39'

47'

61'

T. VarmanenOwn goal

67'

A. Yakubu← E. Agyemang Duah

77'

R. Williams← Y. Rafael

77'

Felix Michel← A. Hudu

77'

D. Kozica← M. Sørensen

77'

E. Engqvist← A. Wiberg

79'

Felix Michel

82'

Jesper Jonasson Westermark

83'

M. Adolfsson← A. Hauksson

84'

I. Magnusson← V. Rodić

87'

Ryan Williams

AFC4-3-3

Osters4-2-3-1

19

▼

Wiberg

10

⚽

Westermar

22

Kusu

8

▼

Hauksson

23

▼

Rodić

9

▼

Sørensen

2

Pavic

33

🥅

Varmanen

4

Stenberg

3

⚽

25

1

3

16

▼

23

22

17

43

▼

Hudu

21

Marqués

9

Coffey

19

▼

Duah

7

Maarouf

Manager: J. Al Jebouri

67'▲A. Yakubu←▼E. Agyemang Duah

77'▲R. Williams←▼Y. Rafael

77'▲Felix Michel←▼A. Hudu

AFC Eskilstuna substitutes

11Yakubu6Williams13Michel8Shamoun20Sabah99Lif12Touray

Manager: S. Tufegdzic

77'▲D. Kozica←▼M. Sørensen

77'▲E. Engqvist←▼A. Wiberg

83'▲M. Adolfsson←▼A. Hauksson

84'▲I. Magnusson←▼V. Rodić

Osters IF substitutes

7Kozica15Engqvist5Adolfsson16Magnusson12Štulić14Silverholt18Drott

Superettan: AFC Eskilstuna 1–2 Osters IF

Osters IF beat AFC Eskilstuna 2-1 in Superettan on October 16, 2022.

Goals: M. Berg (1'), J. Westermark (20'), T. Varmanen (61' o.g.).

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.

AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Superettan: AFC Eskilstuna 1–2 Osters IF