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AFC Eskilstuna vs Osters IF — Superettan 2026

AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Osters IF
Osters IF
A. Culum 6'
A. Wiberg 43'
8/5/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 17Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna44%
×Draw26%
Osters IF30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Eskilstuna
1.47
Osters IF
1.15

AFC Eskilstuna creates 28% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 112 away

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna
1.58
Osters IF
1.35

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna
0.95
Osters IF
1.36

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw
70%
AFC Eskilstuna or Osters IF
74%
Draw or Osters IF
56%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
22%
Osters IF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
77%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
43%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
18%
Osters IF 1+ goals
68%
Osters IF 2+ goals
32%
Osters IF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
60%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.95 · 79 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.36 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.58 + Osters IF defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.47

Osters IF attack 1.35 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more
44%
level
26%
Osters IF scores more
30%

AFC Eskilstuna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
A. Culum
38'
Abdul Halik Hudu
42'
Manz Karlsson Berg
43'
A. Wiberg
58'
Jesper Jonasson Westermark
67'
Daniel Ljung
69'
I. Shamoun← H. Mohammed
69'
L. Lif← M. Palomino
73'
Leo Lif
74'
E. Agyemang Duah← Sergio Mendigutxia
74'
T. Varmanen← D. Kozica
79'
A. Bonnah← D. Ljung
85'
O. Lindberg← Samir Maarouf
86'
Anton Ekeroth
86'
A. Yakubu← A. Culum
89'
Ahmed Bonnah

Possession

45%AFC

Shots

13AFC

Statistics

AFCOsters
Overview
45%Possession55%
13Total Shots12
5Corners6
11Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots12
7On Target9
3Blocked3
Passing
45%Possession55%
Goalkeeping
8Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls13
3Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Superettan: AFC Eskilstuna 1–1 Osters IF

AFC Eskilstuna and Osters IF drew 1-1 in Superettan on August 5, 2023.

Goals: A. Culum (6'), A. Wiberg (43').

Osters IF controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.