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Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna — Superettan 2026

Osters IF
Osters IF
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
F. Örnblom 50' (pen)
S. Alexandersson 11'
J. Manns 17'
11/8/2020SuperettanSuperettan · Round 27Värendsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Osters IF50%
×Draw25%
AFC Eskilstuna25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osters IF
1.60
AFC Eskilstuna
1.05

Osters IF creates 52% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 77 away

creates per match

Osters IF
1.63
AFC Eskilstuna
1.03

allows per match

Osters IF
1.07
AFC Eskilstuna
1.57

finishing

Osters IF+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osters IF ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Osters IF or draw
75%
Osters IF or AFC Eskilstuna
75%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
50%

Winning margin

Osters IF wins by 2+
26%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Osters IF 1+ goals
80%
Osters IF 2+ goals
47%
Osters IF 3+ goals
22%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
65%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
28%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Osters IF (draw refunded)
67%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osters IF at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 112 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osters IF attack 1.63 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.03 + Osters IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Osters IF scores more
50%
level
25%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
25%

Osters IF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Osters IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
S. Alexandersson
17'
J. Manns
19'
Marc Rochester Sørensen
34'
Ferid Ali
50'
Viktor Gotesson
50'
F. ÖrnblomPenalty
63'
Aiham Ousou
65'
I. Lushaku← F. Ali
65'
C. Omeje← Gabriel Somi
77'
K. Rossi← A. Larsson
78'
Jonathan Drott
79'
P. Petrovic← S. Alexandersson
79'
A. Henningsson← C. Johansson
85'
L. N'Diaye← V. Götesson
88'
M. Berg← M. Pavic
90'
Ismet Lushaku

Possession

54%Osters

Shots

9Osters

Statistics

OstersAFC
Overview
54%Possession46%
9Total Shots6
3Corners3
13Fouls17
Shots
9Total Shots6
4On Target3
5Off Target3
Passing
54%Possession46%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls17
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Osters IF vs AFC Eskilstuna

Osters IF beat AFC Eskilstuna 2-1 in Superettan on November 8, 2020.

Goals: S. Alexandersson (11'), J. Manns (17'), F. Örnblom (50' pen).

Osters IF controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 6.

The match was played at Värendsvallen in Växjö.