Osnabrück U19 2–2 Magdeburg U19: Result & Stats

Osnabrück U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Magdeburg U19

J. Stottmann 78'

P. Remmert 70'

L. Bölke 67'

J. Nischalke 3'

2/20/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 13Sportpark Illoshöhe Nebenplatz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Osnabrück U1936%

×Draw21%

Magdeburg U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osnabrück U19Expected goals in this matchMagdeburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.98

Osnabrück U19

1.81

Magdeburg U19

1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 62 away

1.29

creates per match

2.02

1.95

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Osnabrück U19

1.29

Magdeburg U19

2.02

allows per match

Osnabrück U19

1.95

Magdeburg U19

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Magdeburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw

57%

Osnabrück U19 or Magdeburg U19

79%

Draw or Magdeburg U19

64%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

19%

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

84%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

54%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

27%

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

86%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

59%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 73 matches

Magdeburg U19 away — creates 2.02, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.81

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.02 + Osnabrück U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more

36%

level

21%

Magdeburg U19 scores more

43%

Magdeburg U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

J. Nischalke

46'

L. Ricker Rasteiro← J. Zahmel

46'

M. Leue← P. Schmidt

46'

C. Schulze← S. Nouwame

46'

L. Bölke← P. Gysbers

67'

L. Bölke

70'

P. Remmert

74'

A. Oikonomidis← P. Thon

78'

J. Marks← M. Berg

78'

J. Stottmann

Osnabrück

Magdeburg

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: K. Fetz

46'▲L. Ricker Rasteiro←▼J. Zahmel

46'▲M. Leue←▼P. Schmidt

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

RasteiroLeuePantkeBastwösteBartelsGornyYüksekdağ

Manager: P. Sander

46'▲C. Schulze←▼S. Nouwame

46'▲L. Bölke←▼P. Gysbers

74'▲A. Oikonomidis←▼P. Thon

78'▲J. Marks←▼M. Berg

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

SchulzeBölkeOikonomidisMarksEngelhardtGräfSchade

Match Recap: Osnabrück U19 vs Magdeburg U19

Osnabrück U19 and Magdeburg U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 20, 2022.

Goals: J. Nischalke (3'), L. Bölke (67'), P. Remmert (70'), J. Stottmann (78').

The match was played at Sportpark Illoshöhe Nebenplatz 3 in Osnabrück.

Osnabrück U19 vs Magdeburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Osnabrück U19 vs Magdeburg U19