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Osnabrück U19 vs Magdeburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Osnabrück U19
Osnabrück U19
CANC
10:00
Magdeburg U19
Magdeburg U19
11/21/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Osnabrück U1936%
×Draw21%
Magdeburg U1943%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osnabrück U19
1.79
Magdeburg U19
1.98

Magdeburg U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 61 away

creates per match

Osnabrück U19
1.29
Magdeburg U19
2.02

allows per match

Osnabrück U19
1.95
Magdeburg U19
2.30

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par
Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Magdeburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw
57%
Osnabrück U19 or Magdeburg U19
79%
Draw or Magdeburg U19
64%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+
18%
Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals
83%
Osnabrück U19 2+ goals
53%
Osnabrück U19 3+ goals
26%
Magdeburg U19 1+ goals
86%
Magdeburg U19 2+ goals
59%
Magdeburg U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)
45%
Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.95 · 73 matches

Magdeburg U19 away — creates 2.02, concedes 2.30 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.79

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.02 + Osnabrück U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more
36%
level
21%
Magdeburg U19 scores more
43%

Magdeburg U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Osnabrück U19 face Magdeburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with Osnabrück U19 hosting Magdeburg U19. Match starts November 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.