Magdeburg U19 1–0 Osnabrück U19: Result & Stats

Magdeburg U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Osnabrück U19

M. Temp 1' (pen)

4/6/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 22Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Magdeburg U1955%

×Draw19%

Osnabrück U1926%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg U19Expected goals in this matchOsnabrück U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.65

Magdeburg U19

2.44

Osnabrück U19

1.65

Magdeburg U19 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 73 away

2.37

creates per match

1.29

2.00

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Magdeburg U19

2.37

Osnabrück U19

1.29

allows per match

Magdeburg U19

2.00

Osnabrück U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw

74%

Magdeburg U19 or Osnabrück U19

81%

Draw or Osnabrück U19

45%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

34%

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

91%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

70%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

43%

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

81%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

49%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.37 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.44

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more

55%

level

19%

Osnabrück U19 scores more

26%

Magdeburg U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

M. TempPenalty

46'

H. Traoré← E. Curic

46'

M. Augé← E. Ghassan

59'

L. Menke← M. Dittwe

59'

T. Ogbidi← F. Salihoglu

69'

H. Rückert← M. Plewa

72'

F. Onken← T. Bovenschulte

79'

H. Berentzen← G. Baya

89'

M. Hommel← M. Temp

Magdeburg

Osnabrück

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Temp

▼

Salihoglu

Manager: T. Hoßmang

59'▲L. Menke←▼M. Dittwe

59'▲T. Ogbidi←▼F. Salihoglu

69'▲H. Rückert←▼M. Plewa

89'▲M. Hommel←▼M. Temp

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

MenkeOgbidiRückertHommelFarwigZentrichKips

Manager: M. Tredup

46'▲H. Traoré←▼E. Curic

46'▲M. Augé←▼E. Ghassan

72'▲F. Onken←▼T. Bovenschulte

79'▲H. Berentzen←▼G. Baya

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

TraoréAugéOnkenBerentzenPopescuDuhme