Osmaniyespor 1–2 Karaköprü Belediyespor

Osmaniyespor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Karaköprü Belediyespor

A. Ablak 54'

M. Çakır 84'

U. Dilek 18'

12/10/2023

League #554 · Group 3 - 14Osmaniye 7 Ocak Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Osmaniyespor42%

×Draw29%

Karaköprü Belediyespor29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OsmaniyesporExpected goals in this matchKaraköprü Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.97

Osmaniyespor

1.24

Karaköprü Belediyespor

0.97

Osmaniyespor creates 28% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.80

creates per match

1.33

0.60

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Osmaniyespor

1.80

Karaköprü Belediyespor

1.33

allows per match

Osmaniyespor

0.60

Karaköprü Belediyespor

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osmaniyespor+0.00on par

Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osmaniyespor ↓

Karaköprü Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Osmaniyespor or draw

71%

Osmaniyespor or Karaköprü Belediyespor

71%

Draw or Karaköprü Belediyespor

58%

Winning margin

Osmaniyespor wins by 2+

19%

Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Osmaniyespor 1+ goals

71%

Osmaniyespor 2+ goals

35%

Osmaniyespor 3+ goals

13%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals

62%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals

25%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Osmaniyespor (draw refunded)

59%

Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osmaniyespor at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osmaniyespor attack 1.80 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.24

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 1.33 + Osmaniyespor defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Osmaniyespor scores more

42%

level

29%

Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more

29%

Osmaniyespor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Osmaniyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

35'

54'

73'

73'

E. Yıldırım← B. Aytaç

80'

80'

84'

86'

Osmaniyespor

Karaköprü

75

Özkan

44

Memnun

61

⚽

Çakır

22

▼

Aytaç

17

▼

Yüksel

10

▼

Koç

11

▼

Gayla

8

Şahingöz

41

Fırtına

14

▼

Dalgıç

21

⚽

1

55

2

24

▼

77

19

8

10

99

9

5

Manager: E. Aytekin

35'▲A. Ablak←▼D. Solmaz

Osmaniyespor substitutes

80Ablak44Şentürk53Şen6Cöcü11Çevik18Çelik30Özdemir31Razaki50Kaya

Manager: B. Durmuş

73'▲İ. Talay←▼M. Yüksel

73'▲E. Yıldırım←▼B. Aytaç

80'▲S. Yılmaz←▼S. Gayla

80'▲H. Köçer←▼F. Dalgıç

86'▲B. Büyükkaya←▼Y. Koç

Karaköprü Belediyespor substitutes

63Talay77Yıldırım9Yılmaz26Köçer5Büyükkaya1Çelebi3Yılmaz6Rızvanoğlu91Aydın99Özköroğlu

Match Recap: Osmaniyespor vs Karaköprü Belediyespor

Karaköprü Belediyespor beat Osmaniyespor 2-1 in League #554 on December 10, 2023.

Goals: U. Dilek (18'), A. Ablak (54'), M. Çakır (84').

The match was played at Osmaniye 7 Ocak Stadyumu in Osmaniye.

Osmaniyespor vs Karaköprü Belediyespor — League #554 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Osmaniyespor vs Karaköprü Belediyespor