Karaköprü Belediyespor 1–3 Osmaniyespor

Karaköprü Belediyespor

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Osmaniyespor

G. Demirel 81'

B. Cevik 90+1'

M. Yilmaz 79'

T. Yilmaz 17'

3/8/2026

League #553 · Group 2 - 24Faruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor43%

×Draw25%

Osmaniyespor32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karaköprü BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchOsmaniyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.26

Karaköprü Belediyespor

1.50

Osmaniyespor

1.26

Karaköprü Belediyespor creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

1.60

creates per match

1.40

1.13

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor

1.60

Osmaniyespor

1.40

allows per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor

1.13

Osmaniyespor

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par

Osmaniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaköprü Belediyespor ↓

Osmaniyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Karaköprü Belediyespor or draw

68%

Karaköprü Belediyespor or Osmaniyespor

75%

Draw or Osmaniyespor

57%

Winning margin

Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+

21%

Osmaniyespor wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals

78%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals

44%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals

19%

Osmaniyespor 1+ goals

72%

Osmaniyespor 2+ goals

36%

Osmaniyespor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)

57%

Osmaniyespor (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaköprü Belediyespor at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Osmaniyespor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 1.60 + Osmaniyespor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Osmaniyespor attack 1.40 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more

43%

level

25%

Osmaniyespor scores more

32%

Karaköprü Belediyespor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Karaköprü Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

T. Yilmaz↳ S. Uresin

79'

M. Yilmaz↳ G. Varol

81'

G. Demirel↳ H. Ozturk

90+1'

B. Cevik↳ M. Yilmaz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff