Karaköprü Belediyespor 2–1 Osmaniyespor

Karaköprü Belediyespor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Osmaniyespor

B. Aytaç 43'

R. Şahingöz 29'

S. Keskin 8'

4/21/2024

League #554 · Group 3 - 29Faruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor42%

×Draw28%

Osmaniyespor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karaköprü BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchOsmaniyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.03

Karaköprü Belediyespor

1.27

Osmaniyespor

1.03

Karaköprü Belediyespor creates 23% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

1.40

0.67

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor

1.33

Osmaniyespor

1.40

allows per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor

0.67

Osmaniyespor

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par

Osmaniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaköprü Belediyespor ↓

Osmaniyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Karaköprü Belediyespor or draw

70%

Karaköprü Belediyespor or Osmaniyespor

72%

Draw or Osmaniyespor

58%

Winning margin

Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+

19%

Osmaniyespor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals

72%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals

36%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals

14%

Osmaniyespor 1+ goals

64%

Osmaniyespor 2+ goals

28%

Osmaniyespor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)

58%

Osmaniyespor (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaköprü Belediyespor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Osmaniyespor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 1.33 + Osmaniyespor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Osmaniyespor attack 1.40 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more

42%

level

28%

Osmaniyespor scores more

30%

Karaköprü Belediyespor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karaköprü Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

24'

29'

43'

66'

69'

75'

E. Rızvanoğlu← R. Şahingöz

83'

R. Şahin← C. Dede

83'

B. Yıldırım← S. Keskin

83'

Y. Kaya← A. Ablak

90'

D. Diker← M. Yüksel

90'

E. Yıldırım← B. Aytaç

90'

M. Özköroğlu← S. Yılmaz

Karaköprü

Osmaniyespor

44

▼

4

2

24

3

16

⚽

▼

Keskin

13

▼

Dede

80

▼

Ablak

30

▼

99

6

75

4

44

22

⚽

▼

Aytaç

17

▼

Yüksel

8

⚽

▼

Şahingöz

41

Fırtına

14

Dalgıç

63

▼

Talay

9

▼

Yılmaz

21

Dilek

Manager: B. Durmuş

69'▲Y. Koç←▼İ. Talay

75'▲E. Rızvanoğlu←▼R. Şahingöz

90'▲D. Diker←▼M. Yüksel

90'▲E. Yıldırım←▼B. Aytaç

90'▲M. Özköroğlu←▼S. Yılmaz

Karaköprü Belediyespor substitutes

10Koç6Rızvanoğlu7Diker77Yıldırım99Özköroğlu1Çelebi3Yılmaz13Pehlivan20Yılmaz26Köçer

Manager: U. Balcıoğlu

24'▲R. Şen←▼Y. Şentürk

66'▲H. Kaya←▼A. Özdemir

83'▲R. Şahin←▼C. Dede

83'▲B. Yıldırım←▼S. Keskin

83'▲Y. Kaya←▼A. Ablak

Osmaniyespor substitutes

53Şen50Kaya31Şahin14Yıldırım55Kaya35Aşkın25Barak

League #554: Karaköprü Belediyespor 2–1 Osmaniyespor

Karaköprü Belediyespor beat Osmaniyespor 2-1 in League #554 on April 21, 2024.

Goals: S. Keskin (8'), R. Şahingöz (29'), B. Aytaç (43').

The match was played at Faruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi in Şanlıurfa.

Karaköprü Belediyespor vs Osmaniyespor — League #554 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #554: Karaköprü Belediyespor 2–1 Osmaniyespor