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Osasuna II vs Gimnastic — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Osasuna II
Osasuna II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnastic
Gimnastic
11/5/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Campo A2 de Tajonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Osasuna II35%
×Draw30%
Gimnastic35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osasuna II
1.07
Gimnastic
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Osasuna II
1.09
Gimnastic
0.89

allows per match

Osasuna II
1.26
Gimnastic
1.05

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par
Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Gimnastic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw
65%
Osasuna II or Gimnastic
70%
Draw or Gimnastic
65%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+
14%
Gimnastic wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals
66%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
29%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
9%
Gimnastic 1+ goals
66%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
29%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)
50%
Gimnastic (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.09 + Gimnastic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.07

Gimnastic attack 0.89 + Osasuna II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Osasuna II scores more
35%
level
30%
Gimnastic scores more
35%

Osasuna II at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Osasuna II vs Gimnastic

Osasuna II beat Gimnastic 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Campo A2 de Tajonar in Navarra.