Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gimnastic vs Osasuna II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Gimnastic
Gimnastic
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Osasuna II
Osasuna II
1/28/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Nou Estadi Costa Daurada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gimnastic54%
×Draw25%
Osasuna II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnastic
1.57
Osasuna II
0.88

Gimnastic creates 78% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Gimnastic
1.71
Osasuna II
1.05

allows per match

Gimnastic
0.71
Osasuna II
1.44

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par
Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Osasuna II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw
79%
Gimnastic or Osasuna II
75%
Draw or Osasuna II
46%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+
28%
Osasuna II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals
79%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
46%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
21%
Osasuna II 1+ goals
59%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
22%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)
72%
Osasuna II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.71 + Osasuna II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.57

Osasuna II attack 1.05 + Gimnastic defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gimnastic scores more
54%
level
25%
Osasuna II scores more
21%

Gimnastic at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gimnastic vs Osasuna II

Gimnastic and Osasuna II drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Costa Daurada in Tarragona.