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Gimnastic vs Osasuna II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Gimnastic
Gimnastic
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Osasuna II
Osasuna II
4/16/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Nou Estadi de Tarragona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Gimnastic48%
×Draw27%
Osasuna II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnastic
1.43
Osasuna II
0.96

Gimnastic creates 49% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 46 away

creates per match

Gimnastic
1.35
Osasuna II
0.96

allows per match

Gimnastic
0.96
Osasuna II
1.50

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par
Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

Osasuna II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw
75%
Gimnastic or Osasuna II
73%
Draw or Osasuna II
52%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+
23%
Osasuna II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals
76%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
42%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
17%
Osasuna II 1+ goals
62%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
25%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)
65%
Osasuna II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.35 + Osasuna II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Osasuna II attack 0.96 + Gimnastic defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gimnastic scores more
48%
level
27%
Osasuna II scores more
25%

Gimnastic at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Gimnastic 1–1 Osasuna II

Gimnastic and Osasuna II drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Nou Estadi de Tarragona in Tarragona.