Osasuna II 2–3 Arenas Getxo: Result & Stats

Osasuna II

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Arenas Getxo

M. Auria 59'

A. Bonel 34'

M. Zabala 85', 6'

J. Lartitegi 30'

1/24/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Tajonar Facilities Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Osasuna II45%

×Draw27%

Arenas Getxo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Osasuna IIExpected goals in this matchArenas Getxo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.02

Osasuna II

1.39

Arenas Getxo

1.02

Osasuna II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.09

creates per match

0.79

1.26

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Osasuna II

1.09

Arenas Getxo

0.79

allows per match

Osasuna II

1.26

Arenas Getxo

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Arenas Getxo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw

72%

Osasuna II or Arenas Getxo

73%

Draw or Arenas Getxo

55%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+

22%

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals

75%

Osasuna II 2+ goals

40%

Osasuna II 3+ goals

16%

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals

64%

Arenas Getxo 2+ goals

27%

Arenas Getxo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)

62%

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.09 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.39

Arenas Getxo attack 0.79 + Osasuna II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Osasuna II scores more

45%

level

27%

Arenas Getxo scores more

28%

Osasuna II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

30'

34'

45'

50'

56'

C. Mattheus← J. Lartitegi

59'

M. Auria

60'

R. Arroyo← A. Bonel

63'

A. Troncho← S. Boriko

65'

C. Lumbreras← M. Pedroarena

67'

T. Vizcay

76'

X. Garin← M. Rico

81'

C. Mutilva← A. Hidalgo

81'

J. L. Rodriguez← T. Vizcay

83'

85'

90+2'

90+3'

Osasuna

Arenas

1

Gastesi

21

Sillero

4

Alvarez

24

▼

Boriko

5

Garcia

23

Sustatxa

12

⚽

▼

Lartitegi

8

⚽2

Zabala

16

Verde

10

▼

Hidalgo

2

▼

1

12

4

23

21

11

▼

Pedroaren

6

Echegoyen

16

⚽

Auria

10

▼

Rico

8

Yoldi

19

⚽

▼

Bonel

60'▲R. Arroyo←▼A. Bonel

65'▲C. Lumbreras←▼M. Pedroarena

76'▲X. Garin←▼M. Rico

Osasuna II substitutes

13Rafa5Santos7Lumbreras17Arroyo18Bonel20Perez22Larrion26Garin28Villamayor30Anso34Arrasate35Kall

Manager: Sanchez Benito

56'▲C. Mattheus←▼J. Lartitegi

63'▲A. Troncho←▼S. Boriko

81'▲C. Mutilva←▼A. Hidalgo

81'▲J. L. Rodriguez←▼T. Vizcay

Arenas Getxo substitutes

25Jarauta19Mutilva18Honrado14Messina11Troncho9Vazquez17Rodriguez22Mattheus

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Osasuna II 2–3 Arenas Getxo

Arenas Getxo beat Osasuna II 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 24, 2026.

Goals: M. Zabala (6', 85'), J. Lartitegi (30'), A. Bonel (34'), M. Auria (59').

The match was played at Tajonar Facilities Stadium in Pamplona.

Osasuna II vs Arenas Getxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Osasuna II 2–3 Arenas Getxo