Arenas Getxo 1–3 Osasuna II: Result & Stats

Arenas Getxo

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Osasuna II

4/7/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Municipal de Gobela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Arenas Getxo40%

×Draw29%

Osasuna II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arenas GetxoExpected goals in this matchOsasuna II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.00

Arenas Getxo

1.18

Osasuna II

1.00

Arenas Getxo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 46 away

0.85

creates per match

0.96

1.04

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Arenas Getxo

0.85

Osasuna II

0.96

allows per match

Arenas Getxo

1.04

Osasuna II

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Osasuna II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw

69%

Arenas Getxo or Osasuna II

71%

Draw or Osasuna II

60%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+

17%

Osasuna II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals

69%

Arenas Getxo 2+ goals

33%

Arenas Getxo 3+ goals

12%

Osasuna II 1+ goals

63%

Osasuna II 2+ goals

26%

Osasuna II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)

56%

Osasuna II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 0.85 + Osasuna II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Osasuna II attack 0.96 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more

40%

level

29%

Osasuna II scores more

31%

Arenas Getxo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff