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Osasuna II vs Arenas Getxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Osasuna II
Osasuna II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
5/2/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 5Campo A2 de Tajonar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Osasuna II48%
×Draw27%
Arenas Getxo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osasuna II
1.44
Arenas Getxo
0.97

Osasuna II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 27 away

creates per match

Osasuna II
1.63
Arenas Getxo
1.00

allows per match

Osasuna II
0.93
Arenas Getxo
1.26

finishing

Osasuna II+0.00on par
Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osasuna II ↓

Arenas Getxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Osasuna II or draw
75%
Osasuna II or Arenas Getxo
73%
Draw or Arenas Getxo
52%

Winning margin

Osasuna II wins by 2+
24%
Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Osasuna II 1+ goals
76%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
42%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
18%
Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
62%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
25%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Osasuna II (draw refunded)
65%
Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osasuna II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osasuna II attack 1.63 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Arenas Getxo attack 1.00 + Osasuna II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Osasuna II scores more
48%
level
27%
Arenas Getxo scores more
25%

Osasuna II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Osasuna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Osasuna II 1–2 Arenas Getxo

Arenas Getxo beat Osasuna II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Campo A2 de Tajonar in Navarra.