Orlando Pride W 6–0 Chicago Red Stars W

Orlando Pride W

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Chicago Red Stars W

B. Banda 87', 80'

J. Doyle 65'

H. Anderson 47' (OG)

A. Watt 36'

H. McCutcheon 7'

3/15/2025

NWSL Women · Round 1Inter&Co Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Orlando Pride W48%

×Draw24%

Chicago Red Stars W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlando Pride WExpected goals in this matchChicago Red Stars W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.21

Orlando Pride W

1.67

Chicago Red Stars W

1.21

Orlando Pride W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 83 away

1.47

creates per match

1.13

1.29

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Orlando Pride W

1.47

Chicago Red Stars W

1.13

allows per match

Orlando Pride W

1.29

Chicago Red Stars W

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlando Pride W+0.00on par

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando Pride W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Orlando Pride W or draw

72%

Orlando Pride W or Chicago Red Stars W

76%

Draw or Chicago Red Stars W

52%

Winning margin

Orlando Pride W wins by 2+

25%

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Orlando Pride W 1+ goals

81%

Orlando Pride W 2+ goals

50%

Orlando Pride W 3+ goals

23%

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

70%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

34%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Orlando Pride W (draw refunded)

63%

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando Pride W at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 86 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando Pride W attack 1.47 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.13 + Orlando Pride W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Orlando Pride W scores more

48%

level

24%

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

28%

Orlando Pride W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Orlando Pride W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Watt

Orlando Pride W · M

8.2

Match Events

7'

H. McCutcheon↳ M. Gautrat

36'

A. Watt↳ Marta

47'

H. AndersonOwn goal

52'

60'

63'

63'

63'

C. Dyke← Rafaelle Souza

64'

J. Gaynor← C. Biegalski

64'

M. Johnson← N. Gomes

65'

J. Doyle↳ B. Banda

74'

A. Lemos←

79'

S. Staab← J. Grosso

79'

C. Barry← A. Schlegel

80'

82'

83'

85'

87'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrlandoChicago

Overview

63%Possession37%

27Total Shots8

12Corners2

8Fouls9

Shots

27Total Shots8

8On Target2

7Off Target1

12Blocked5

17Inside Box7

10Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

439Total Passes281

390Accurate Passes212

89%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

NWSL Women: Orlando Pride W 6–0 Chicago Red Stars W

Orlando Pride W beat Chicago Red Stars W 6-0 in NWSL Women on March 15, 2025.

Goals: H. McCutcheon (7'), A. Watt (36'), H. Anderson (47' o.g.), J. Doyle (65'), B. Banda (80', 87').

Orlando Pride W controlled possession (63%) and registered 27 shots to 8.

The match was played at Inter&Co Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

Orlando Pride W vs Chicago Red Stars W — NWSL Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NWSL Women: Orlando Pride W 6–0 Chicago Red Stars W