Chicago Red Stars W 0–1 Orlando Pride W

Chicago Red Stars W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Orlando Pride W

Marta 37'

9/8/2024

NWSL Women · Round 14SeatGeek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Chicago Red Stars W42%

×Draw26%

Orlando Pride W32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Red Stars WExpected goals in this matchOrlando Pride W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.23

Chicago Red Stars W

1.45

Orlando Pride W

1.23

Chicago Red Stars W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 81 away

1.42

creates per match

1.09

1.37

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.42

Orlando Pride W

1.09

allows per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.37

Orlando Pride W

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Orlando Pride W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Red Stars W ↓

Orlando Pride W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chicago Red Stars W or draw

68%

Chicago Red Stars W or Orlando Pride W

74%

Draw or Orlando Pride W

58%

Winning margin

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

20%

Orlando Pride W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

77%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

42%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

18%

Orlando Pride W 1+ goals

71%

Orlando Pride W 2+ goals

35%

Orlando Pride W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

57%

Orlando Pride W (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Red Stars W at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 84 matches

Orlando Pride W away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.42 + Orlando Pride W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.45

Orlando Pride W attack 1.09 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

42%

level

26%

Orlando Pride W scores more

32%

Chicago Red Stars W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chicago Red Stars W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

N. Kuikka

Chicago Red Stars W · D

7.9

Match Events

15'

Kylie Strom

37'

Marta

46'

B. Franklin← Júlia Bianchi

49'

Jenna Bike

60'

J. Doyle← Adriana

60'

C. Pickett← K. Abello

61'

E. Duljan← S. Yates

62'

Hannah Anderson

67'

Ludmila← J. Bike

71'

M. Gautrat← Angelina

72'

T. Milazzo← C. Biegalski

73'

A. Schlegel← J. Joseph

85'

Bea Franklin

86'

A. Watt← B. Banda

88'

C. Curran← J. Grosso

90+3'

Morgan Gautrat

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChicagoOrlando

Overview

39%Possession61%

3Total Shots15

0Corners11

17Fouls11

Shots

3Total Shots15

2On Target4

1Off Target7

0Blocked4

1Inside Box10

2Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

297Total Passes452

198Accurate Passes355

67%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2