Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chicago Red Stars W vs Orlando Pride W — NWSL Women 2026

Chicago Red Stars W
Chicago Red Stars W
FT
5 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Orlando Pride W
Orlando Pride W
Ludmila 89'
J. Grosso 69'
B. Franklin 65'
J. Joseph 54'
S. Staab 50'
H. McCutcheon 72'
C. Pickett 53'
9/7/2025NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 19SeatGeek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Chicago Red Stars W42%
×Draw26%
Orlando Pride W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chicago Red Stars W
1.45
Orlando Pride W
1.23

Chicago Red Stars W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 81 away

creates per match

Chicago Red Stars W
1.42
Orlando Pride W
1.09

allows per match

Chicago Red Stars W
1.37
Orlando Pride W
1.48

finishing

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par
Orlando Pride W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Red Stars W ↓

Orlando Pride W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chicago Red Stars W or draw
68%
Chicago Red Stars W or Orlando Pride W
74%
Draw or Orlando Pride W
58%

Winning margin

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+
20%
Orlando Pride W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals
77%
Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals
42%
Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals
18%
Orlando Pride W 1+ goals
71%
Orlando Pride W 2+ goals
35%
Orlando Pride W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)
57%
Orlando Pride W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Red Stars W at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 84 matches

Orlando Pride W away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.42 + Orlando Pride W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.45

Orlando Pride W attack 1.09 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chicago Red Stars W scores more
42%
level
26%
Orlando Pride W scores more
32%

Chicago Red Stars W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chicago Red Stars W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
B. FranklinChicago Red Stars WChicago Red Stars W · M
7.7

Match Events

46'
J. Doyle← O. Hernandez
46'
L. Ovalle← S. Charley
48'
Rafaelle
50'
S. Staab
53'
C. Pickett↳ H. McCutcheon
54'
J. Joseph↳ J. Grosso
65'
B. Franklin↳ Ludmila
69'
J. Grosso↳ C. Biegalski
70'
A. Watt← A. Lemos
72'
H. McCutcheon↳ J. Doyle
75'
N. Gomes← M. Lopez Millan
76'
Luana Bertolucci← C. Pickett
76'
S. Yates← Marta
81'
Bea Franklin
85'
Jameese Joseph
88'
L. Nesbeth← J. Joseph
89'
Ludmila↳ N. Gomes
90+4'
Leilanni Nesbeth
90+1'
M. Hayashi← J. Grosso
90+2'
M. Johnson← Ludmila

Possession

50%Chicago

Shots

19Chicago

Pass accuracy

50%Chicago

Statistics

ChicagoOrlando
Overview
50%Possession50%
19Total Shots13
3Corners2
12Fouls11
Shots
19Total Shots13
8On Target5
5Off Target5
6Blocked3
12Inside Box13
7Outside Box0
Passing
50%Possession50%
371Total Passes346
298Accurate Passes279
80%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Chicago Red Stars W vs Orlando Pride W

Chicago Red Stars W beat Orlando Pride W 5-2 in NWSL Women on September 7, 2025.

Goals: S. Staab (50'), C. Pickett (53'), J. Joseph (54'), B. Franklin (65'), J. Grosso (69'), H. McCutcheon (72'), Ludmila (89').

Chicago Red Stars W controlled possession (50%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at SeatGeek Stadium in Bridgeview.