Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1–2 Tianjin Songjiang

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tianjin Songjiang

Feng Xiaoting 64'

Sun Ke 61'

A. Modeste 18'

11/4/2017

Super League · Round 30Tianhe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC50%

×Draw23%

Tianjin Songjiang27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou Evergrande FCExpected goals in this matchTianjin Songjiang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.23

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.77

Tianjin Songjiang

1.23

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 36 away

1.97

creates per match

1.36

1.10

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.97

Tianjin Songjiang

1.36

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.10

Tianjin Songjiang

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw

73%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Tianjin Songjiang

77%

Draw or Tianjin Songjiang

50%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

27%

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

83%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

53%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

26%

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals

71%

Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals

35%

Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

65%

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.10 · 69 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.97 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.77

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.36 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

50%

level

23%

Tianjin Songjiang scores more

27%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

Wang Yongpo

Tianjin Songjiang · M

8.7

Match Events

7'

Lin Gao

18'

A. Modeste↳ Zhang Cheng

46'

Rong Hao← Liao Lisheng

48'

Axel Witsel

54'

Cheng Zhang

58'

Zhang Chenglin← Xu Xin

61'

Sun Ke↳ Wang Yongpo

64'

Feng Xiaoting↳ Li Xuepeng

71'

71'

71'

77'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuangzhouTianjin

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots19

5Corners4

14Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots19

8On Target8

6Off Target9

2Blocked2

10Inside Box11

6Outside Box8

Passing

57%Possession43%

398Total Passes306

326Accurate Passes224

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

6Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1