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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Tianjin Songjiang — AFC Champions League 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
5/15/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · 8th FinalsTianhe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC40%
×Draw23%
Tianjin Songjiang38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.74
Tianjin Songjiang
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.28
Tianjin Songjiang
1.40

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.00
Tianjin Songjiang
2.20

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
62%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Tianjin Songjiang
77%
Draw or Tianjin Songjiang
60%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
20%
Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
82%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
52%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
25%
Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
82%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
51%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
51%
Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.28 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.74

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
40%
level
23%
Tianjin Songjiang scores more
38%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2–2 Tianjin Songjiang

Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Tianjin Songjiang drew 2-2 in AFC Champions League on May 15, 2018.

The match was played at Tianhe Stadium in Guangzhou.