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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Tianjin Songjiang — Super League 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
3/1/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Tianhe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC55%
×Draw22%
Tianjin Songjiang23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.97
Tianjin Songjiang
1.21

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 30 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2.04
Tianjin Songjiang
1.40

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.03
Tianjin Songjiang
1.90

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
77%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Tianjin Songjiang
78%
Draw or Tianjin Songjiang
45%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
32%
Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
86%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
58%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
31%
Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
70%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
34%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
70%
Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 2.04 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.97

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
55%
level
22%
Tianjin Songjiang scores more
23%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Tianjin Songjiang

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Tianjin Songjiang 3-0 in Super League on March 1, 2019.

The match was played at Tianhe Stadium in Guangzhou.