Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oriente Petrolero vs Jorge Wilstermann — Primera División 2026

Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jorge Wilstermann
Jorge Wilstermann
6/15/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 10Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Oriente Petrolero50%
×Draw25%
Jorge Wilstermann25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriente Petrolero
1.63
Jorge Wilstermann
1.08

Oriente Petrolero creates 51% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 123 away

creates per match

Oriente Petrolero
1.73
Jorge Wilstermann
1.12

allows per match

Oriente Petrolero
1.04
Jorge Wilstermann
1.52

finishing

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par
Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriente Petrolero ↓

Jorge Wilstermann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Oriente Petrolero or draw
75%
Oriente Petrolero or Jorge Wilstermann
75%
Draw or Jorge Wilstermann
50%

Winning margin

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+
26%
Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals
80%
Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals
48%
Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals
22%
Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals
66%
Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals
29%
Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)
67%
Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriente Petrolero at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.04 · 131 matches

Jorge Wilstermann away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.73 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.63

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.12 + Oriente Petrolero defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oriente Petrolero scores more
50%
level
25%
Jorge Wilstermann scores more
25%

Oriente Petrolero at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oriente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oriente Petrolero vs Jorge Wilstermann

Oriente Petrolero beat Jorge Wilstermann 2-0 in Primera División on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas in Santa Cruz.