Oriente Petrolero 2–1 Jorge Wilstermann

Oriente Petrolero

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jorge Wilstermann

4/7/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Oriente Petrolero50%

×Draw25%

Jorge Wilstermann25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oriente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchJorge Wilstermann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.08

Oriente Petrolero

1.63

Jorge Wilstermann

1.08

Oriente Petrolero creates 51% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 123 away

1.73

creates per match

1.12

1.04

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Oriente Petrolero

1.73

Jorge Wilstermann

1.12

allows per match

Oriente Petrolero

1.04

Jorge Wilstermann

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriente Petrolero ↓

Jorge Wilstermann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oriente Petrolero or draw

75%

Oriente Petrolero or Jorge Wilstermann

75%

Draw or Jorge Wilstermann

50%

Winning margin

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

26%

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

80%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

48%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

22%

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals

66%

Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals

29%

Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

67%

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriente Petrolero at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.04 · 131 matches

Jorge Wilstermann away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.73 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.63

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.12 + Oriente Petrolero defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oriente Petrolero scores more

50%

level

25%

Jorge Wilstermann scores more

25%

Oriente Petrolero at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oriente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff