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Jorge Wilstermann vs Oriente Petrolero — Primera División 2026

Jorge Wilstermann
Jorge Wilstermann
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero
11/29/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 23Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Jorge Wilstermann55%
×Draw22%
Oriente Petrolero23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jorge Wilstermann
1.90
Oriente Petrolero
1.15

Jorge Wilstermann creates 65% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 128 away

creates per match

Jorge Wilstermann
1.74
Oriente Petrolero
1.16

allows per match

Jorge Wilstermann
1.14
Oriente Petrolero
2.05

finishing

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par
Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jorge Wilstermann ↓

Oriente Petrolero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jorge Wilstermann or draw
77%
Jorge Wilstermann or Oriente Petrolero
78%
Draw or Oriente Petrolero
45%

Winning margin

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+
31%
Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals
85%
Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals
56%
Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals
29%
Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals
68%
Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals
32%
Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)
71%
Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jorge Wilstermann at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.14 · 124 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.05 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.74 + Oriente Petrolero defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.90

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.16 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jorge Wilstermann scores more
55%
level
22%
Oriente Petrolero scores more
23%

Jorge Wilstermann at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jorge Wilstermann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Jorge Wilstermann 2–2 Oriente Petrolero

Jorge Wilstermann and Oriente Petrolero drew 2-2 in Primera División on November 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.