Oriente Petrolero 1–4 Bolívar: Result & Stats

Oriente Petrolero

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Bolívar

G. Álvarez 46'

J. Velásquez 74'

Fábio Gomes 60', 55', 9'

12/19/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 29Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Oriente Petrolero36%

×Draw24%

Bolívar40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oriente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchBolívar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.60

Oriente Petrolero

1.50

Bolívar

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

1.96

creates per match

2.12

1.08

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Oriente Petrolero

1.96

Bolívar

2.12

allows per match

Oriente Petrolero

1.08

Bolívar

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriente Petrolero ↓

Bolívar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Oriente Petrolero or draw

60%

Oriente Petrolero or Bolívar

76%

Draw or Bolívar

64%

Winning margin

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

17%

Bolívar wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

78%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

44%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

19%

Bolívar 1+ goals

80%

Bolívar 2+ goals

47%

Bolívar 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

47%

Bolívar (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriente Petrolero at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Bolívar away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.96 + Bolívar defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bolívar attack 2.12 + Oriente Petrolero defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oriente Petrolero scores more

36%

level

24%

Bolívar scores more

40%

Bolívar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

90

Fábio Gomes

Bolívar · F

9.5

Match Events

7'

Leonel Justiniano

9'

Fábio Gomes↳ Y. Rocha

14'

16'

30'

30'

35'

42'

46'

G. Álvarez↳ H. Dorrego

55'

Fábio Gomes↳ C. Melgar

60'

Fábio Gomes

62'

J. García← J. Sánchez

65'

Anderson← C. Melgar

66'

J. Velásquez← Y. Rocha

68'

F. Vargas← S. Ramírez

68'

D. Barreto← M. Riquelme

71'

A. Paz← D. Rodriguez

71'

C. Árabe← M. Villarroel

74'

J. Velásquez↳ R. Vaca

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrienteBolívar

Overview

36%Possession64%

17Total Shots7

4Corners6

11Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots7

8On Target6

8Off Target1

1Blocked0

8Inside Box6

9Outside Box1

Passing

36%Possession64%

182Total Passes341

121Accurate Passes273

66%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

11Fouls10

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0