Bolívar 2–0 Oriente Petrolero: Result & Stats

Bolívar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oriente Petrolero

J. Velásquez 90+3'

L. Justiniano 51'

9/15/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 14Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Bolívar70%

×Draw17%

Oriente Petrolero13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolívarExpected goals in this matchOriente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.00

Bolívar

2.50

Oriente Petrolero

1.00

Bolívar creates 150% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 127 away

2.93

creates per match

1.17

0.84

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Bolívar

2.93

Oriente Petrolero

1.17

allows per match

Bolívar

0.84

Oriente Petrolero

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Oriente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw

87%

Bolívar or Oriente Petrolero

83%

Draw or Oriente Petrolero

30%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+

47%

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals

92%

Bolívar 2+ goals

71%

Bolívar 3+ goals

45%

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

63%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

26%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)

84%

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 2.93, concedes 0.84 · 130 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.06 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 2.93 + Oriente Petrolero defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.50

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.17 + Bolívar defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bolívar scores more

70%

level

17%

Oriente Petrolero scores more

13%

Bolívar at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Velásquez

Bolívar · M

8.2

Match Events

4'

Renzo Orihuela

4'

Gilbert Álvarez

6'

Alex Granell

10'

José Sagredo← Anderson

30'

L. Paz← F. Saucedo

51'

L. Justiniano↳ C. Melgar

55'

F. Gonzales← D. Barreto

63'

D. Rodriguez← M. Villarroel

64'

H. Dorrego← K. Salvatierra

69'

Franz Gonzales

69'

Fabio Vargas

76'

Y. Rocha← Álex Granell

77'

A. Oviedo← Fábio Gomes

81'

Leonel Justiniano

86'

J. Caraballo← F. Vargas

86'

S. Melgar← G. Álvarez

90+3'

J. Velásquez↳ A. Oviedo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BolívarOriente

Overview

72%Possession28%

19Total Shots8

5Corners8

8Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots8

7On Target3

10Off Target0

2Blocked5

9Inside Box4

10Outside Box4

Passing

72%Possession28%

468Total Passes183

413Accurate Passes120

88%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2