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Bolívar vs Oriente Petrolero — Primera División 2021

Bolívar
Bolívar
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero
Francisco da Costa 90+6', 87', 45+3'
Bruno Sávio 65'
C. Ventura 24', 13'
3/31/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 7Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Bolívar70%
×Draw17%
Oriente Petrolero13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
2.44
Oriente Petrolero
0.95

Bolívar creates 157% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 89 away

creates per match

Bolívar
2.90
Oriente Petrolero
1.12

allows per match

Bolívar
0.78
Oriente Petrolero
1.99

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Oriente Petrolero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
87%
Bolívar or Oriente Petrolero
83%
Draw or Oriente Petrolero
30%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
47%
Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
91%
Bolívar 2+ goals
70%
Bolívar 3+ goals
43%
Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals
61%
Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals
25%
Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
84%
Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.78 · 91 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.99 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 2.90 + Oriente Petrolero defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.44

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.12 + Bolívar defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bolívar scores more
70%
level
17%
Oriente Petrolero scores more
13%

Bolívar at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
Francisco da CostaBolívarBolívar · M
10.0

Match Events

13'
C. Ventura↳ G. Álvarez
24'
C. Ventura↳ D. Barreto
45+3'
Francisco da Costa↳ Bruno Sávio
56'
D. Rodriguez← D. Barreto
59'
Y. Rocha← J. Quinteros
59'
H. Vaca← F. Saucedo
59'
R. Vaca← J. Velásquez
63'
Dieguito Rodriguez
65'
Bruno Sávio↳ Francisco da Costa
79'
C. García← G. Álvarez
87'
Francisco da Costa↳ Bruno Sávio
90+2'
Bruno Sávio
90'
Ramiro Vaca
90+8'
Francisco Da CostaGoal confirmed
90+2'
E. Vaca← Bruno Sávio
90+3'
A. De Guzmán← F. Gonzales
90+6'
Francisco da Costa↳ Y. Rocha

Possession

80%Bolívar

Shots

36Bolívar

Pass accuracy

60%Bolívar

Statistics

BolívarOriente
Overview
80%Possession20%
36Total Shots10
10Corners3
6Fouls6
Shots
36Total Shots10
13On Target4
13Off Target2
10Blocked4
22Inside Box7
14Outside Box3
Passing
80%Possession20%
590Total Passes152
529Accurate Passes92
90%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
2Saves9
Discipline
6Fouls6
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Primera División: Bolívar 4–2 Oriente Petrolero

Bolívar beat Oriente Petrolero 4-2 in Primera División on March 31, 2024.

Goals: C. Ventura (13', 24'), Francisco da Costa (45+3', 87', 90+6'), Bruno Sávio (65').

Bolívar controlled possession (80%) and registered 36 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz.