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Oriente Petrolero vs Bolívar — Primera División 2026

Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bolívar
Bolívar
2/22/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 2Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Oriente Petrolero38%
×Draw24%
Bolívar38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriente Petrolero
1.53
Bolívar
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 135 away

creates per match

Oriente Petrolero
1.73
Bolívar
2.01

allows per match

Oriente Petrolero
1.04
Bolívar
1.33

finishing

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriente Petrolero ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Oriente Petrolero or draw
62%
Oriente Petrolero or Bolívar
76%
Draw or Bolívar
62%

Winning margin

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+
18%
Bolívar wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals
78%
Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals
45%
Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals
20%
Bolívar 1+ goals
78%
Bolívar 2+ goals
45%
Bolívar 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)
50%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriente Petrolero at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.04 · 131 matches

Bolívar away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.73 + Bolívar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.53

Bolívar attack 2.01 + Oriente Petrolero defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oriente Petrolero scores more
38%
level
24%
Bolívar scores more
38%

Oriente Petrolero at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oriente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Oriente Petrolero 0–2 Bolívar

Bolívar beat Oriente Petrolero 2-0 in Primera División on February 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.