Oriente Petrolero 3–3 ABB: Result & Stats

Oriente Petrolero

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

ABB

D. Rodriguez 75'

K. F. Salvatierra Flores 45'

F. Nava 17' (pen)

A. Arroyo 85'

L. Vaca 73'

R. Orihuela 57'

7/13/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 14Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Oriente Petrolero63%

×Draw20%

ABB17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oriente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchABB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.08

Oriente Petrolero

2.23

ABB

1.08

Oriente Petrolero creates 106% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 21 away

1.71

creates per match

1.10

1.05

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Oriente Petrolero

1.71

ABB

1.10

allows per match

Oriente Petrolero

1.05

ABB

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

ABB+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriente Petrolero ↓

ABB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Oriente Petrolero or draw

83%

Oriente Petrolero or ABB

80%

Draw or ABB

37%

Winning margin

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

40%

ABB wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

89%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

65%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

38%

ABB 1+ goals

66%

ABB 2+ goals

29%

ABB 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

78%

ABB (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriente Petrolero at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.05 · 129 matches

ABB away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.71 + ABB defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.23

ABB attack 1.10 + Oriente Petrolero defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Oriente Petrolero scores more

63%

level

20%

ABB scores more

17%

Oriente Petrolero at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Oriente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

R. Centurion

Oriente Petrolero · F

7.7

Match Events

14'

Gilbert ÁlvarezPenalty confirmed

16'

Gary Rea

17'

F. NavaPenalty

20'

Gilbert Álvarez

20'

Pablo Meza

22'

Daniel Rojas

24'

M. Quiroga← M. Salazar

27'

Franz Gonzales

45'

K. F. Salvatierra Flores↳ G. Alvarez

55'

J. Rivas← G. Rea Mendieta

56'

R. Ardaya← M. Galindo

57'

59'

59'

62'

64'

D. Rodriguez← D. Bejarano

64'

J. Rojas← V. Galvez

64'

R. Amaral← R. Centurion

71'

J. Berdecio← K. F. Salvatierra Flores

73'

L. Vaca↳ J. Rivas

75'

D. Rodriguez

79'

Dieguito RodriguezGoal confirmed

81'

W. Chala← G. Alvarez

85'

A. Arroyo↳ Mizael Monteiro

87'

Abdiel ArroyoGoal confirmed

90+3'

Rodrigo Amaral

90+8'

Jhon Mena

90+5'

Fabián Pereira

90+7'

A. Cervantes← L. Vaca

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrienteABB

Overview

50%Possession50%

22Total Shots14

3.36Expected Goals (xG)0.77

8Corners8

18Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots14

9On Target3

7Off Target5

6Blocked6

11Inside Box8

11Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

217Total Passes224

176Accurate Passes185

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls9

6Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2