ABB vs Oriente Petrolero — Primera División 2026
Primera División · Apertura - 6Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 20+ matches
ABB45%
Oriente Petrolero32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
ABB creates 22% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 128 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over60
- Under40
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
ABB ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
ABB at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches
Oriente Petrolero away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.01 · 128 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
ABB attack 1.40 + Oriente Petrolero defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.70
Oriente Petrolero attack 1.17 + ABB defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
ABB at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "ABB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
Jorge Wilstermann
The Strongest
Bolívar
San José
Always ReadyOriente Petrolero
Nacional Potosí
Blooming
Royal Pari
Aurora
Real Potosí
Guabirá
Club Destroyers
Sport BoysBolívarThe StrongestNacional PotosíBloomingSan JoséJorge WilstermannOriente PetroleroGuabiráAlways ReadyReal PotosíRoyal PariSport BoysAuroraClub DestroyersIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
ABB host Oriente Petrolero on Monday, 11 May 2026 at 19:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2026/2027 season.
Primera División: ABB 3–1 Oriente Petrolero
ABB beat Oriente Petrolero 3-1 in Primera División on May 11, 2026.
Goals: E. Mangala (11'), J. F. Fajardo (19' pen), J. Herrera (75'), R. Perozo (90').