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ABB vs Oriente Petrolero — Primera División 2026

ABB
ABB
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero
B. Espinoza 58'
A. Bejarano 50' (pen)
G. Rea Mendieta 42'
A. Cervantes 40'
P. Loza 28'
W. Chala 78'
G. Alvarez 55' (pen)
12/11/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

ABB45%
×Draw24%
Oriente Petrolero32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABB
1.70
Oriente Petrolero
1.39

ABB creates 22% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 128 away

creates per match

ABB
1.40
Oriente Petrolero
1.17

allows per match

ABB
1.60
Oriente Petrolero
2.01

finishing

ABB+0.00on par
Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABB ↓

Oriente Petrolero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

ABB or draw
68%
ABB or Oriente Petrolero
76%
Draw or Oriente Petrolero
55%

Winning margin

ABB wins by 2+
24%
Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

ABB 1+ goals
82%
ABB 2+ goals
51%
ABB 3+ goals
24%
Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals
75%
Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals
40%
Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

ABB (draw refunded)
59%
Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABB at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.01 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABB attack 1.40 + Oriente Petrolero defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.70

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.17 + ABB defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ABB scores more
45%
level
24%
Oriente Petrolero scores more
32%

ABB at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ABB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
A. BejaranoABBABB · M
8.7

Match Events

28'
P. Loza↳ A. Bejarano
31'
Jhon Mena
40'
A. Cervantes↳ A. Bejarano
42'
G. Rea Mendieta↳ P. Loza
46'
A. de Guzman← J. Berdecio
50'
A. BejaranoPenalty
55'
G. AlvarezPenalty
58'
B. Espinoza
61'
Bryan EspinozaGoal confirmed
62'
W. Chala← C. Arabe
70'
Sebastian Alvarez
73'
A. Nino De Guzman← M. Velasco
78'
W. Chala↳ L. Cardenas
79'
Walter ChaláGoal confirmed
81'
J. Rojas← M. Galindo
82'
M. Quiroga← P. Loza
90+1'
Alejandro Bejarano
90+2'
A. Bharti← A. Bejarano
90+2'
J. Vedia← G. Rea Mendieta
90+2'
E. Condori← A. Cervantes

Possession

55%ABB

Shots

21ABB

Pass accuracy

51%ABB

Statistics

ABBOriente
Overview
55%Possession45%
21Total Shots8
3Corners3
13Fouls7
Shots
21Total Shots8
12On Target4
6Off Target2
3Blocked2
12Inside Box4
9Outside Box4
Passing
55%Possession45%
380Total Passes305
332Accurate Passes259
87%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
13Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Match Recap: ABB vs Oriente Petrolero

ABB beat Oriente Petrolero 5-2 in Primera División on December 11, 2025.

Goals: P. Loza (28'), A. Cervantes (40'), G. Rea Mendieta (42'), A. Bejarano (50' pen), G. Alvarez (55' pen), B. Espinoza (58'), W. Chala (78').

ABB controlled possession (55%) and registered 21 shots to 8.