Orgryte IS vs IFK Varnamo — Superettan 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 40+ matches
Orgryte IS53%
IFK Varnamo24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Orgryte IS creates 60% more chances
Season form · 122 home / 40 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Orgryte IS ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Orgryte IS at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.21 · 122 matches
IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Orgryte IS attack 1.67 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.78
IFK Varnamo attack 1.02 + Orgryte IS defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Orgryte IS at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Orgryte IS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Falkenbergs FF
Varbergs BoIS FC
Landskrona BoIS
Vasteras SK FK
Oddevold
Helsingborg
Ostersunds FK
IK brage
Kalmar FF
Sandviken
Orebro SKOrgryte IS
GIF Sundsvall
IFK Norrkoping
United Nordic
Osters IF
Norrby IF
Ljungskile SK
Umeå FC
Utsikten
TrelleborgIFK Varnamo
Hammarby TalangIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Orgryte IS host IFK Varnamo on Wednesday, 23 May 2018 at 17:00. The match is part of the Superettan 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Orgryte IS vs IFK Varnamo
Orgryte IS beat IFK Varnamo 4-0 in Superettan on May 23, 2018.
Goals: D. Sliper (36'), J. Ericsson (55'), S. Nilsson (69'), G. Ludwigson (87').
The match was played at Gamla Ullevi (Göteborg).