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IFK Varnamo vs Orgryte IS — Superettan 2018

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
9/20/2021SuperettanSuperettan · Round 21Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

IFK Varnamo41%
×Draw26%
Orgryte IS32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.39
Orgryte IS
1.20

IFK Varnamo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 122 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.32
Orgryte IS
1.29

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.11
Orgryte IS
1.46

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Orgryte IS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
68%
IFK Varnamo or Orgryte IS
74%
Draw or Orgryte IS
59%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
19%
Orgryte IS wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
75%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
40%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
16%
Orgryte IS 1+ goals
70%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
34%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
56%
Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.32 + Orgryte IS defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Orgryte IS attack 1.29 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
41%
level
26%
Orgryte IS scores more
32%

IFK Varnamo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Varnamo vs Orgryte IS

IFK Varnamo and Orgryte IS drew 1-1 in Superettan on September 20, 2021.

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen in Värnamo.