IFK Varnamo 2–2 Orgryte IS: Result & Stats

IFK Varnamo

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Orgryte IS

2/22/2026

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

IFK Varnamo45%

×Draw23%

Orgryte IS32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK VarnamoExpected goals in this matchOrgryte IS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.41

IFK Varnamo

1.72

Orgryte IS

1.41

IFK Varnamo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

1.38

creates per match

1.06

1.75

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

IFK Varnamo

1.38

Orgryte IS

1.06

allows per match

IFK Varnamo

1.75

Orgryte IS

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Orgryte IS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw

68%

IFK Varnamo or Orgryte IS

77%

Draw or Orgryte IS

55%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

24%

Orgryte IS wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

82%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

51%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

25%

Orgryte IS 1+ goals

76%

Orgryte IS 2+ goals

41%

Orgryte IS 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

59%

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.38 + Orgryte IS defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.72

Orgryte IS attack 1.06 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more

45%

level

23%

Orgryte IS scores more

32%

IFK Varnamo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff