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Orgryte IS vs Degerfors IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
4/27/2026AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 5Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Orgryte IS52%
×Draw22%
Degerfors IF26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orgryte IS
2.03
Degerfors IF
1.40

Orgryte IS creates 45% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 65 away

creates per match

Orgryte IS
2.00
Degerfors IF
1.08

allows per match

Orgryte IS
1.71
Degerfors IF
2.06

finishing

Orgryte IS+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orgryte IS ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Orgryte IS or draw
74%
Orgryte IS or Degerfors IF
78%
Draw or Degerfors IF
48%

Winning margin

Orgryte IS wins by 2+
30%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Orgryte IS 1+ goals
87%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
60%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
33%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
75%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
41%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
66%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orgryte IS at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.06 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orgryte IS attack 2.00 + Degerfors IF defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.03

Degerfors IF attack 1.08 + Orgryte IS defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Orgryte IS scores more
52%
level
22%
Degerfors IF scores more
26%

Orgryte IS at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Orgryte IS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Orgryte IS 1–1 Degerfors IF

Orgryte IS and Degerfors IF drew 1-1 in Allsvenskan on April 27, 2026.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Gothenburg.