Degerfors IF 5–0 Orgryte IS: Result & Stats

Degerfors IF

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Orgryte IS

E. Bouzaiene 88'

A. Fisic 77'

G. Lindgren 71', 21' (pen)

K. Holmén 10'

2/18/2024

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Stora Valla B-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Degerfors IF67%

×Draw19%

Orgryte IS13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Degerfors IFExpected goals in this matchOrgryte IS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

0.84

Degerfors IF

2.16

Orgryte IS

0.84

Degerfors IF creates 157% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

2.25

creates per match

1.06

0.63

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Degerfors IF

2.25

Orgryte IS

1.06

allows per match

Degerfors IF

0.63

Orgryte IS

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Orgryte IS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw

87%

Degerfors IF or Orgryte IS

81%

Draw or Orgryte IS

33%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

43%

Orgryte IS wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

88%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

63%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

36%

Orgryte IS 1+ goals

57%

Orgryte IS 2+ goals

21%

Orgryte IS 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

83%

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 2.25 + Orgryte IS defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.16

Orgryte IS attack 1.06 + Degerfors IF defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Degerfors IF scores more

67%

level

19%

Orgryte IS scores more

13%

Degerfors IF at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

K. Holmén

21'

G. LindgrenPenalty

52'

N. Barkroth

59'

A. Mujanic

59'

N. Christoffersson← V. Lundberg

61'

A. Fisic← Pashang Abdulla

71'

G. Lindgren

77'

A. Fisic

79'

A. Abukar← W. Alder

79'

O. Johansson← E. Sadiku

86'

J. Bichis← E. Pihlström

88'

E. Bouzaiene

Degerfors

Orgryte

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: W. Lundin

61'▲A. Fisic←▼Pashang Abdulla

86'▲J. Bichis←▼E. Pihlström

Degerfors IF substitutes

FisicBichisIlungaBunjakuRönnberg

Manager: A. Holmberg

59'▲N. Christoffersson←▼V. Lundberg

79'▲A. Abukar←▼W. Alder

79'▲O. Johansson←▼E. Sadiku

Orgryte IS substitutes

ChristofferssonAbukarJohanssonVennbergSkoglundJavetteRaskAhmedGullbrandsen

Match Recap: Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS

Degerfors IF beat Orgryte IS 5-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 18, 2024.

Goals: K. Holmén (10'), G. Lindgren (21' pen, 71'), A. Fisic (77'), E. Bouzaiene (88').

The match was played at Stora Valla B-plan in Degerfors.

Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS — Svenska Cupen 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS