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Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS — Superettan 2026

Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
J. Bertilsson 43'
V. Edvardsen 7'
10/21/2020SuperettanSuperettan · Round 24Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Degerfors IF48%
×Draw24%
Orgryte IS28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Degerfors IF
1.69
Orgryte IS
1.23

Degerfors IF creates 37% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 122 away

creates per match

Degerfors IF
1.93
Orgryte IS
1.29

allows per match

Degerfors IF
1.17
Orgryte IS
1.46

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par
Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Orgryte IS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw
72%
Degerfors IF or Orgryte IS
76%
Draw or Orgryte IS
52%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+
26%
Orgryte IS wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals
82%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
50%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
24%
Orgryte IS 1+ goals
71%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
35%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
63%
Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.17 · 60 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 1.93 + Orgryte IS defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.69

Orgryte IS attack 1.29 + Degerfors IF defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Degerfors IF scores more
48%
level
24%
Orgryte IS scores more
28%

Degerfors IF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
V. Edvardsen
43'
J. Bertilsson
55'
Oliver Ekroth
59'
Victor Kaj Edvardsen
60'
Hannes Sahlin
66'
Erik Lindell
66'
B. Jobe← A. Bergmark-Wiberg
66'
D. Ervik← O. Stanisic
66'
M. El Kabir← M. Ndione
75'
D. Janevski← A. Lindahl
75'
F. Ayaz← V. Dahlström
77'
L. Browning-Lagerfeldt← H. Sahlin
77'
H. Sjögrell← D. Paulson
87'
M. Astvald← J. Bertilsson
90'
Mostapha El Kabir
90+4'
C. Wiktorsson← J. Ortmark
90+4'
J. Segura Bonilla← V. Edvardsen

Possession

61%Degerfors

Shots

8Degerfors

Statistics

DegerforsOrgryte
Overview
61%Possession39%
8Total Shots1
6Corners9
3Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots1
4On Target1
4Off Target0
Passing
61%Possession39%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
3Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS

Degerfors IF beat Orgryte IS 2-0 in Superettan on October 21, 2020.

Goals: V. Edvardsen (7'), J. Bertilsson (43').

Degerfors IF controlled possession (61%) and registered 8 shots to 1.

The match was played at Stora Valla in Degerfors.