Orense SC 0–1 Guayaquil City FC: Result & Stats

Orense SC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Guayaquil City FC

R. César 20'

5/28/2022

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 15Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Orense SC53%

×Draw26%

Guayaquil City FC21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orense SCExpected goals in this matchGuayaquil City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.86

Orense SC

1.52

Guayaquil City FC

0.86

Orense SC creates 77% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 70 away

1.32

creates per match

0.71

1.02

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Orense SC

1.32

Guayaquil City FC

0.71

allows per match

Orense SC

1.02

Guayaquil City FC

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Guayaquil City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw

79%

Orense SC or Guayaquil City FC

74%

Draw or Guayaquil City FC

47%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+

27%

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals

78%

Orense SC 2+ goals

45%

Orense SC 3+ goals

20%

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals

58%

Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals

21%

Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)

71%

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 105 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.73 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.32 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.71 + Orense SC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Orense SC scores more

53%

level

26%

Guayaquil City FC scores more

21%

Orense SC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

22'

27'

27'

38'

46'

J. Rezabala← R. César

61'

M. Oyola← J. Villalba

61'

Gabriel Marques← Klebinho

62'

Matías Oyola

62'

Gabriel Corozo← M. Quiñonez

63'

S. Portocarrero← J. Kouffaty

71'

Matías Oyola

73'

E. Montaño← J. Angulo

74'

D. Noboa← J. Montaño

74'

J. Ayovi← M. Parrales

85'

J. Molina← E. Pluas

90'

Gabriel Corozo

90+5'

Esnaider Cabezas

Possession

Shots

Statistics

OrenseGuayaquil

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots3

6Corners1

12Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots3

6On Target1

11Off Target2

Passing

54%Possession46%

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1