Guayaquil City FC vs Orense SC — Liga Pro 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 69+ matches
Guayaquil City FC49%
Orense SC24%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Guayaquil City FC creates 57% more chances
Season form · 69 home / 104 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Guayaquil City FC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches
Orense SC away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.43 · 104 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Guayaquil City FC attack 1.33 + Orense SC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38
Orense SC attack 0.69 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Guayaquil City FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Independiente del Valle
Emelec
9 de Octubre
Universidad Catolica
LDU de Quito
Delfin SC
Tecnico Universitario
Aucas
Barcelona SCGuayaquil City FCOrense SC
Deportivo Cuenca
Mushuc Runa SC
Macara
Manta FC
CD OlmedoEmelecBarcelona SCIndependiente del ValleUniversidad CatolicaMushuc Runa SCLDU de QuitoMacara9 de OctubreAucasDelfin SCDeportivo CuencaManta FCTecnico UniversitarioOrense SCGuayaquil City FCCD OlmedoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Guayaquil City FC host Orense SC on Sunday, 23 October 2022 at 23:00. The match is part of the Liga Pro 2020/2021 season.
Liga Pro: Guayaquil City FC 1–1 Orense SC
Guayaquil City FC and Orense SC drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on October 23, 2022.
Goals: G. Achilier (48'), J. Rezabala (53').
The match was played at Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt in Guayaquil.