Guayaquil City FC 1–0 Orense SC: Result & Stats

Guayaquil City FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Orense SC

M. Parrales 20' (pen)

8/26/2023

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 4Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Guayaquil City FC49%

×Draw28%

Orense SC24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guayaquil City FCExpected goals in this matchOrense SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.88

Guayaquil City FC

1.38

Orense SC

0.88

Guayaquil City FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 104 away

1.33

creates per match

0.69

1.06

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC

1.33

Orense SC

0.69

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC

1.06

Orense SC

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Orense SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw

76%

Guayaquil City FC or Orense SC

72%

Draw or Orense SC

51%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+

23%

Orense SC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals

75%

Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals

40%

Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals

16%

Orense SC 1+ goals

59%

Orense SC 2+ goals

22%

Orense SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)

67%

Orense SC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Orense SC away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.43 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.33 + Orense SC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Orense SC attack 0.69 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more

49%

level

28%

Orense SC scores more

24%

Guayaquil City FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

E. Pluas

Orense SC · M

7.7

Match Events

14'

Kevin BecerraPenalty cancelled

18'

Rolando David Silva

20'

M. ParralesPenalty

23'

45+1'

45+3'

46'

53'

57'

J. Humanante← K. Sambonino

57'

M. Alonso← A. Preciado

60'

J. Andrade← D. Coronel

68'

R. Calderón← A. Assis

71'

W. Vargas← Klebinho

71'

W. Fernández← J. Montaño

80'

Jean HumanantePenalty cancelled

82'

Wiston Fernández

82'

A. Dávila← M. Parrales

86'

R. Rivas← C. Martínez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuayaquilOrense

Overview

40%Possession60%

6Total Shots12

2Corners11

17Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots12

3On Target3

3Off Target6

0Blocked3

5Inside Box8

1Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

250Total Passes348

166Accurate Passes256

66%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Guayaquil City FC vs Orense SC

Guayaquil City FC beat Orense SC 1-0 in Liga Pro on August 26, 2023.

Goals: M. Parrales (20' pen).

Orense SC controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt in Guayaquil.

Guayaquil City FC vs Orense SC — Liga Pro 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Guayaquil City FC vs Orense SC