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Orense SC vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026

Orense SC
Orense SC
48'
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Emelec
Emelec
J. Ruiz 21'
7/17/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 19Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Orense SC47%
×Draw27%
Emelec26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orense SC
1.38
Emelec
0.95

Orense SC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 30 away

creates per match

Orense SC
1.42
Emelec
0.80

allows per match

Orense SC
1.10
Emelec
1.33

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw
74%
Orense SC or Emelec
73%
Draw or Emelec
53%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+
22%
Emelec wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals
75%
Orense SC 2+ goals
40%
Orense SC 3+ goals
16%
Emelec 1+ goals
61%
Emelec 2+ goals
25%
Emelec 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)
64%
Emelec (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Emelec away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.42 + Emelec defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Emelec attack 0.80 + Orense SC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Orense SC scores more
47%
level
27%
Emelec scores more
26%

Orense SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
J. Ruiz↳ F. Pizzini
23'
I. Guerrico
25'
S. Mina
32'
G. Rostagno
36'
P. Velasco
36'
P. Velasco
46'
B. Quinonez← G. Rostagno

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Orense SC 0–1 Emelec

Orense SC vs Emelec is underway in Liga Pro — it's 0-1 after 48 minutes.

Most recent goal: J. Ruiz (21').