Emelec 2–1 Orense SC: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Emelec

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Orense SC

A. Ricaurte 90+6'

G. Cortéz 90+3'

L. León 35' (OG)

9/1/2024

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 5Estadio George Capwell Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Emelec48%

×Draw28%

Orense SC24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchOrense SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.83

Emelec

1.32

Orense SC

0.83

Emelec creates 59% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

1.21

creates per match

0.75

0.91

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Emelec

1.21

Orense SC

0.75

allows per match

Emelec

0.91

Orense SC

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Orense SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

76%

Emelec or Orense SC

72%

Draw or Orense SC

52%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

23%

Orense SC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

73%

Emelec 2+ goals

38%

Emelec 3+ goals

15%

Orense SC 1+ goals

56%

Orense SC 2+ goals

20%

Orense SC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

67%

Orense SC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Orense SC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.21 + Orense SC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.32

Orense SC attack 0.75 + Emelec defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Emelec scores more

48%

level

28%

Orense SC scores more

24%

Emelec at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Ricaurte

Emelec · M

7.7

Match Events

18'

Sergio Vásquez

35'

L. LeónOwn goal

46'

A. González← R. Rivero

46'

G. Achilier← Ó. Quiñónez

58'

Gabriel Achilier

60'

R. Calderón← S. Vasquez

64'

J. Ruíz← J. Ayoví

75'

Yeltzin Erique

76'

J. Andrade← N. Servetto

77'

B. Viñán← A. Herrera

79'

Marcelo Meli

81'

T. Chamba← M. Meli

81'

A. Ricaurte← E. Muñoz

84'

86'

90+5'

90+3'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmelecOrense

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots6

3Corners3

15Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots6

5On Target0

3Off Target5

4Blocked1

9Inside Box4

3Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

408Total Passes350

323Accurate Passes260

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides4