Orense SC 1–1 Emelec: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Orense SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Emelec

A. Herrera 90+7' (pen)

F. Castelli 12'

3/26/2024

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 5Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Orense SC45%

×Draw28%

Emelec28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orense SCExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.98

Orense SC

1.33

Emelec

0.98

Orense SC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

1.38

creates per match

0.84

1.13

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Orense SC

1.38

Emelec

0.84

allows per match

Orense SC

1.13

Emelec

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par

Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw

72%

Orense SC or Emelec

72%

Draw or Emelec

55%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+

21%

Emelec wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals

74%

Orense SC 2+ goals

38%

Orense SC 3+ goals

15%

Emelec 1+ goals

62%

Emelec 2+ goals

26%

Emelec 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)

62%

Emelec (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Emelec away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.38 + Emelec defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Emelec attack 0.84 + Orense SC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Orense SC scores more

45%

level

28%

Emelec scores more

28%

Orense SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Herrera

Orense SC · F

8.2

Match Events

12'

F. Castelli↳ J. Sánchez

27'

29'

37'

41'

43'

46'

D. Coronel← A. Maziero

62'

R. Rivero← J. Sánchez

63'

J. Andrade← E. Sosa

70'

M. Solís← J. Ruíz

70'

T. Chamba← W. Corozo

75'

J. Ayoví← F. Castelli

75'

C. Valencia← M. Meli

77'

Richard Calderón

82'

C. Barros← R. Burbano

89'

M. Eggel← R. Calderón

90+4'

Walter Agustin HerreraPenalty confirmed

90+7'

Jaime Ayoví

90+4'

Gilmar Napa

90+1'

Cristhian Valencia

90+7'

A. HerreraPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrenseEmelec

Overview

55%Possession45%

19Total Shots14

5Corners6

15Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots14

4On Target5

11Off Target2

4Blocked7

11Inside Box7

8Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

399Total Passes342

318Accurate Passes251

80%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls15

4Yellow Cards5