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Orense SC vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026

Orense SC
Orense SC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Emelec
Emelec
9/28/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 30Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Orense SC45%
×Draw28%
Emelec28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orense SC
1.33
Emelec
0.98

Orense SC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

creates per match

Orense SC
1.38
Emelec
0.84

allows per match

Orense SC
1.13
Emelec
1.29

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw
72%
Orense SC or Emelec
72%
Draw or Emelec
55%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+
21%
Emelec wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals
74%
Orense SC 2+ goals
38%
Orense SC 3+ goals
15%
Emelec 1+ goals
62%
Emelec 2+ goals
26%
Emelec 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)
62%
Emelec (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Emelec away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.38 + Emelec defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Emelec attack 0.84 + Orense SC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Orense SC scores more
45%
level
28%
Emelec scores more
28%

Orense SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
P. VelascoOrense SCOrense SC · D
7.3

Match Events

30'
Pedro Velasco
45+2'
Nixon Molina
55'
Romario Caicedo
63'
D. Armas← O. Bianchi
69'
Beder Caicedo
72'
B. Caicedo← V. Burgoa
76'
J. R. Cuero Palacio← J. Ayovi
76'
W. Corozo← M. Solis
86'
S. Mina← S. Quinonez
86'
B. Vinan← A. Mena
90+1'
E. Munoz← A. Gonzalez
90+1'
A. Barco← J. Cevallos

Possession

59%Orense

Shots

13Orense

Pass accuracy

53%Orense

Statistics

OrenseEmelec
Overview
59%Possession41%
13Total Shots4
1.61Expected Goals (xG)0.32
4Corners3
14Fouls16
Shots
13Total Shots4
2On Target1
10Off Target2
1Blocked1
10Inside Box2
3Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
381Total Passes269
321Accurate Passes199
84%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls16
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Orense SC vs Emelec

Orense SC and Emelec drew 0-0 in Liga Pro on September 28, 2025.

Orense SC controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo in Machala.