Orebro SK 4–1 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats

Orebro SK

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ostersunds FK

E. Andersson 71'

S. Crona 59'

K. Holmberg 50' (pen), 33'

S. Karlsson Grach 24'

8/2/2024

Superettan · Round 17Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Orebro SK52%

×Draw22%

Ostersunds FK26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orebro SKExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.29

Orebro SK

1.92

Ostersunds FK

1.29

Orebro SK creates 49% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.64

creates per match

1.20

1.39

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Orebro SK

1.64

Ostersunds FK

1.20

allows per match

Orebro SK

1.39

Ostersunds FK

2.19

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.74scores less than expected

finishing

Orebro SK-0.26scores less

Ostersunds FK-0.74scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw

74%

Orebro SK or Ostersunds FK

78%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

48%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+

30%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals

85%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

57%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

30%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

72%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

37%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

67%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.39 · 13 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.19 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.64 + Ostersunds FK defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.92

Ostersunds FK attack 1.20 + Orebro SK defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Orebro SK scores more

52%

level

22%

Ostersunds FK scores more

26%

Orebro SK at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. Holmberg

Orebro SK · F

8.5

Match Events

24'

33'

33'

47'

47'

50'

K. HolmbergPenalty

51'

Ziad Ghanoum← M. Musolitin

59'

S. Crona

63'

N. Perry← S. Marklund

63'

M. Stolt← S. Karlsson Grach

63'

A. Bonnah← J. Hopcutt

71'

E. Andersson

72'

M. Saeid← E. Andersson

78'

T. Hansemon← E. McCue

78'

H. Shagaxle← S. Crona

79'

N. Bergmark← E. Barsoum

82'

A. Bark← S. Kroon

83'

J. Hedenquist← Y. Adjoumani

90+3'

Valgeir Valgeirsson

90+4'

Nebiyou Perry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrebroOstersunds

Overview

54%Possession46%

20Total Shots7

4.25Expected Goals (xG)0.84

6Corners3

6Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots7

10On Target2

4Off Target2

6Blocked3

13Inside Box5

7Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

547Total Passes417

478Accurate Passes352

87%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

6Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides5

Match Recap: Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK

Orebro SK beat Ostersunds FK 4-1 in Superettan on August 2, 2024.

Goals: S. Karlsson Grach (24'), K. Holmberg (33', 50' pen), S. Crona (59'), E. Andersson (71').

Orebro SK controlled possession (54%) and registered 20 shots to 7.

The match was played at Behrn Arena in Örebro.

Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK