Orebro SK 1–0 Landskrona BoIS: Result & Stats

Orebro SK

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Landskrona BoIS

K. Holmberg 53'

4/6/2026

Superettan · Round 1Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Orebro SK46%

×Draw26%

Landskrona BoIS28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orebro SKExpected goals in this matchLandskrona BoIS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.11

Orebro SK

1.50

Landskrona BoIS

1.11

Orebro SK creates 35% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 98 away

1.36

creates per match

1.16

1.07

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Orebro SK

1.36

Landskrona BoIS

1.16

allows per match

Orebro SK

1.07

Landskrona BoIS

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

Landskrona BoIS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw

72%

Orebro SK or Landskrona BoIS

74%

Draw or Landskrona BoIS

54%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+

23%

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals

78%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

44%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

19%

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

67%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

30%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

62%

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 67 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.36 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.16 + Orebro SK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Orebro SK scores more

46%

level

26%

Landskrona BoIS scores more

28%

Orebro SK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

75

J. Ojrzynski

Orebro SK · G

9.2

Match Events

43'

André Álvarez Pérez

45+1'

G. Bovalina← J. Ortmark

53'

K. Holmberg

69'

X. Odhiambo← S. Ojala

69'

Z. Loukili← M. Mohamed

71'

Zakaria Loukili

75'

F. Wahlstrom← A. Yasin

79'

A. Egnell← K. Jensen

86'

H. Dana← S. Wikman

86'

L. Astvald← V. Sandberg

86'

E. Hrastovina← K. Holmberg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrebroLandskrona

Overview

31%Possession69%

5Total Shots18

0.75Expected Goals (xG)2.62

2Corners12

16Fouls13

Shots

5Total Shots18

2On Target8

1Off Target6

2Blocked4

4Inside Box13

1Outside Box5

Passing

31%Possession69%

253Total Passes546

201Accurate Passes472

79%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

8Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Superettan: Orebro SK 1–0 Landskrona BoIS

Orebro SK beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0 in Superettan on April 6, 2026.

Goals: K. Holmberg (53').

Landskrona BoIS controlled possession (69%) and registered 18 shots to 5.

The match was played at Behrn Arena in Orebro.

Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Superettan: Orebro SK 1–0 Landskrona BoIS