Orebro SK 1–0 Landskrona BoIS: Result & Stats

Orebro SK

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Landskrona BoIS

P. Andersson 87' (OG)

9/28/2024

Superettan · Round 25Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Orebro SK46%

×Draw26%

Landskrona BoIS28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orebro SKExpected goals in this matchLandskrona BoIS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.11

Orebro SK

1.50

Landskrona BoIS

1.11

Orebro SK creates 35% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 98 away

1.36

creates per match

1.16

1.07

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Orebro SK

1.36

Landskrona BoIS

1.16

allows per match

Orebro SK

1.07

Landskrona BoIS

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

Landskrona BoIS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw

72%

Orebro SK or Landskrona BoIS

74%

Draw or Landskrona BoIS

54%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+

23%

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals

78%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

44%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

19%

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

67%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

30%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

62%

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 67 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.36 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.16 + Orebro SK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Orebro SK scores more

46%

level

26%

Landskrona BoIS scores more

28%

Orebro SK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Amr Kaddoura

Landskrona BoIS · G

8.2

Match Events

15'

Vincent Sundberg

61'

Niclas Bergmark

70'

M. Saeid← V. Backman

70'

H. Shagaxle← E. Andersson

78'

S. Crona← N. Bergmark

87'

P. AnderssonOwn goal

90+2'

Valgeir Valgeirsson

90'

O. Käck← K. Holmberg

90'

T. Hansemon← L. Shlimon

90'

C. Stark← V. Karlsson

90'

X. Odhiambo← F. Sachpekidis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrebroLandskrona

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots9

1.11Expected Goals (xG)0.86

3Corners3

18Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots9

4On Target0

2Off Target8

1Blocked1

4Inside Box3

3Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

384Total Passes504

324Accurate Passes436

84%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides3