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Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF — Allsvenskan 2026

Orebro SK
Orebro SK
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
A. Mehmeti 78'
C. Carlsson 89' (pen)
A. Wede 64'
8/1/2020AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 12Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Orebro SK50%
×Draw23%
Falkenbergs FF26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orebro SK
1.78
Falkenbergs FF
1.23

Orebro SK creates 45% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 30 away

creates per match

Orebro SK
1.29
Falkenbergs FF
0.93

allows per match

Orebro SK
1.52
Falkenbergs FF
2.27

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par
Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

Falkenbergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw
74%
Orebro SK or Falkenbergs FF
77%
Draw or Falkenbergs FF
50%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+
28%
Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals
83%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
53%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
26%
Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
71%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
35%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)
65%
Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.52 · 58 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.29 + Falkenbergs FF defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.78

Falkenbergs FF attack 0.93 + Orebro SK defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Orebro SK scores more
50%
level
23%
Falkenbergs FF scores more
26%

Orebro SK at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
Marcus MathisenFalkenbergs FFFalkenbergs FF · M
8.0

Match Events

42'
N. Gerzic
46'
N. Gerzic← D. Seger
57'
E. Sylisufaj← N. Peter
64'
A. Wede↳ M. Mathisen
68'
A. Granlund
70'
R. Book← A. Hussein
70'
A. Granlund← A. Mehmeti
78'
A. Mehmeti
79'
J. Larsson← M. Broberg
79'
K. Wright← C. B. Hjertstrand
88'
A. Skovgaard
89'
C. CarlssonPenalty
90'
C. Carlsson← L. Ademi
90+2'
A. Wede← G. Johansson
90+5'
D. Seger

Possession

55%Orebro

Shots

17Orebro

Pass accuracy

51%Orebro

Statistics

OrebroFalkenbergs
Overview
55%Possession45%
17Total Shots17
5Corners5
13Fouls13
Shots
17Total Shots17
5On Target7
6Off Target6
6Blocked4
12Inside Box13
5Outside Box4
Passing
55%Possession45%
421Total Passes351
324Accurate Passes259
77%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls13
4Yellow Cards0
3Offsides1

Allsvenskan: Orebro SK 1–2 Falkenbergs FF

Falkenbergs FF beat Orebro SK 2-1 in Allsvenskan on August 1, 2020.

Goals: A. Wede (64'), A. Mehmeti (78'), C. Carlsson (89' pen).

Orebro SK controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 17.

The match was played at Behrn Arena in Örebro.