Falkenbergs FF 2–1 Orebro SK: Result & Stats

Falkenbergs FF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Orebro SK

C. Johansson 74'

T. Englund 67'

D. Hummet 69'

10/17/2020

Allsvenskan · Round 24Falcon Alkoholfri Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Falkenbergs FF39%

×Draw26%

Orebro SK35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Falkenbergs FFExpected goals in this matchOrebro SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.29

Falkenbergs FF

1.38

Orebro SK

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 59 away

1.00

creates per match

0.97

1.62

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.00

Orebro SK

0.97

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.62

Orebro SK

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

Orebro SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw

65%

Falkenbergs FF or Orebro SK

74%

Draw or Orebro SK

61%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

18%

Orebro SK wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

75%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

40%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

16%

Orebro SK 1+ goals

72%

Orebro SK 2+ goals

37%

Orebro SK 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

53%

Orebro SK (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.75 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.00 + Orebro SK defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Orebro SK attack 0.97 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more

39%

level

26%

Orebro SK scores more

35%

Falkenbergs FF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Christoffer Carlsson

Falkenbergs FF · M

7.6

Match Events

64'

J. Martensson

65'

R. Gall← R. Karjalainen

67'

T. Englund↳ N. Peter

69'

D. Hummet↳ C. B. Hjertstrand

74'

C. Johansson↳ C. Carlsson

78'

C. B. Hjertstrand← K. Wright

78'

D. Seger← A. Mehmeti

78'

K. Soderstrom← M. Ozen

84'

A. Hussein

85'

N. Peter

90+1'

M. Mathisen

90+1'

J. Martensson← S. Amin

90+1'

N. Peter← T. Karlsson

90+3'

J. Chibuike← A. Wede

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FalkenbergsOrebro

Overview

39%Possession61%

16Total Shots10

6Corners1

27Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots10

6On Target2

5Off Target6

5Blocked2

10Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

278Total Passes430

181Accurate Passes322

65%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

27Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2