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Falkenbergs FF vs Orebro SK — Superettan 2026

Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Orebro SK
Orebro SK
N. Bertilsson 54' (pen)
A. Andersson 2'
H. Soderstrom 5'
4/29/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 5Falcon Alkoholfri Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Falkenbergs FF44%
×Draw25%
Orebro SK31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falkenbergs FF
1.54
Orebro SK
1.24

Falkenbergs FF creates 24% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF
1.24
Orebro SK
1.36

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF
1.11
Orebro SK
1.83

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.43scores more
Orebro SK-0.63scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

Orebro SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw
69%
Falkenbergs FF or Orebro SK
75%
Draw or Orebro SK
56%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
22%
Orebro SK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
79%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
45%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
20%
Orebro SK 1+ goals
71%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
35%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
59%
Orebro SK (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.83 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.24 + Orebro SK defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Orebro SK attack 1.36 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more
44%
level
25%
Orebro SK scores more
31%

Falkenbergs FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. AnderssonFalkenbergs FFFalkenbergs FF
7.5

Match Events

2'
A. Andersson↳ T. Stalheden
5'
H. Soderstrom
32'
L. Borgstrom← H. Kallstrom
54'
N. BertilssonPenalty
63'
E. Hrastovina← L. Alperud
67'
Elai Ali Fadel
67'
Hampus Söderstrom
73'
I. Shears← L. Sibelius
73'
O. Lindberg← L. Shahin
73'
A. Azizovic← E. Andersson
73'
S. Tipura← A. Yakoub
85'
Samuel Kroon
90+2'
G. Johansson← A. Andersson
90'
H. Shagaxle← A. Ghasem
90'
L. Astvald← O. Kack

Possession

45%Falkenbergs

Shots

13Falkenbergs

Pass accuracy

49%Falkenbergs

Statistics

FalkenbergsOrebro
Overview
45%Possession55%
13Total Shots8
1.85Expected Goals (xG)0.60
3Corners4
8Fouls9
Shots
13Total Shots8
6On Target4
4Off Target2
3Blocked2
8Inside Box4
5Outside Box4
Passing
45%Possession55%
452Total Passes576
352Accurate Passes471
78%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls9
0Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Falkenbergs FF vs Orebro SK

Falkenbergs FF beat Orebro SK 2-1 in Superettan on April 29, 2025.

Goals: A. Andersson (2'), H. Soderstrom (5'), N. Bertilsson (54' pen).

Orebro SK controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena in Falkenberg.